According to a 2023 study by Statista, the Philippines ranks highest in the world for natural disaster risk due to its location along major tectonic plates, making it prone to earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and landslides. Additionally, its position along a typhoon belt leads to frequent typhoons and floods, with an average of 20 typhoons annually, approximately 8 of which make landfall. Notably, Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) in 2013 caused significant devastation, resulting in 6,000 fatalities, damage to nine regions, and $802 million in infrastructure and agricultural losses.
As the El Niño phenomenon weakens, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) forecasts the development of La Niña by June-August 2024. This is expected to increase the number of tropical cyclones in 2024 compared to the previous year, with PAGASA projecting 13 to 16 typhoons in the latter half of the year, up from 11 in 2023.
El Niño and La Niña are phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with La Niña bringing warmer sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific, leading to increased rainfall and severe floods. Given the warming ocean temperatures closer to the Philippines, tropical cyclones may form nearer to the country’s seas, potentially reaching land faster. This contrasts with El Niño, which results in cooler sea temperatures and drier conditions with less rainfall.
The country faces an average annual loss of $3.5 billion in assets due to typhoons and earthquakes, presenting substantial challenges in disaster management and mitigation. Increased rainfall is known to damage crops and elevate agricultural produce prices. In 2022, Tropical Storm Florita hit the Philippine Area of Responsibility, inflicting P19.1 billion in damages to the farm sector, far exceeding initial estimates. In the Ilocos region, damages reached P26.53 million, with a production loss of 1,132 metric tons (MT). Additionally, irrigation systems in the Ilocos and Cordillera regions suffered P22.7 million in damages, impacting future production and prompting the Cordillera DA to request P148 million for seeds, fertilizer vouchers, and financial aid.
While the effects of La Niña are expected later in the year, it is essential to take proactive measures. Here are some key considerations:
Mitigation: Focus on preventing risks or reducing potential damages from weather hazards. This can include storing valuables on higher surfaces, elevating critical equipment, and conducting regular property surveys to identify and address vulnerabilities.
Supply Chain: Analyse supply chains to identify weaknesses that could disrupt operations. Diversify suppliers to reduce risks from supplier-specific issues, and consider utilizing multiple transportation methods for resilience and efficiency.
Food Chain:. The agricultural sector is anticipated to be the most vulnerable to the effects of La Niña. Weather hazards affecting food commodities, combined with existing inflation trends and rising shipping prices, are likely to impact market prices. It is imperative to further strengthen the resilience and risk management of supply chains and review the strategies and track records of current suppliers.
Logistics:. Adverse weather conditions could result in delays, such as ships taking longer routes or delaying departure. This may impact cargo delivery and necessitate inspections upon arrival. Be mindful of potential delays in unloading containers at destination ports and transporting materials, owing to factors such as restricted work hours and poor road conditions caused by inclement weather. Considering obtaining marine insurance to cover expenses resulting from such risks can offer financial protection.
Contingency Planning:. Ensure the continuity of operations despite potential or unforeseen delays. Proactively secure extra stock to mitigate inventory shortages and minimize revenue loss. Establish an evacuation plan for you and your team to respond swiftly to emergencies. Consider implementing hybrid or flexible working conditions, particularly for employees most affected by weather-related aftermaths
In disaster risk management, concise, clear, and reliable information is essential for effective decision-making, risk assessment, emergency response coordination, and minimizing losses. Stay updated with official announcements and guidelines from relevant authorities like PAGASA and local disaster management agencies. By being prepared and taking proactive measures, individuals and businesses can better navigate the challenges posed by La Niña and contribute to the overall resilience of the Philippines in the face of natural disasters.
