Can the Renewable Energy Transition Keep Pace with a Changing Climate?

The Philippines is both an El Niño hotspot and one of Southeast Asia’s most active renewable energy markets.

That combination deserves a closer look.

The country is targeting a 35% share of renewable energy in its power generation mix by 2030 and 50% by 2040. The Department of Energy is also continuing to expand the renewable energy pipeline through its Green Energy Auction program.

At the same time, PAGASA expects the current El Niño to intensify to a very strong event between September and December 2026 and persist through the first half of 2027. The expected impacts include warmer conditions, below normal rainfall, dry spells and drought in some areas.

But scientists are also watching what happens when a strong El Niño develops on top of an already warmer climate. Harvard climate scientist Peter Huybers described it as “an anomalous El Niño riding on top of a high temperature trend” that could make for “a weird year.” Scientists also expect some effects to be harder to predict.

That raises a question for an energy transition increasingly dependent on physical infrastructure:

Are we still developing tomorrow’s renewable energy projects using assumptions based on yesterday’s climate?

Renewable energy projects are long term assets. Their development and performance depend on environmental conditions, site characteristics, supporting infrastructure and resource availability over time.

Climate conditions can affect all of these.

Hydropower is particularly exposed to changes in rainfall and water availability. The International Energy Agency has identified changing precipitation patterns and greater variability as risks to hydropower across Southeast Asia.

Solar and wind have different exposure profiles.

Extreme heat can affect solar PV and electrical equipment. Wind projects must account for the Philippines’ exposure to tropical cyclones and extreme wind conditions. The IEA estimates that almost half of Southeast Asia’s installed solar PV and hydropower capacity is in cyclone prone areas. More than 40% of wind turbines and more than 20% of electricity grids are also exposed.

And El Niño does not produce the same conditions across the country. PAGASA has noted that western areas can still experience above normal rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon, particularly when tropical cyclones interact with it.

The point is not that renewable energy projects cannot withstand these conditions, but whether the conditions we use to assess, design and price these projects will remain representative over their operating lives.

A project may have an attractive renewable resource today. But what happens when climate conditions alter rainfall patterns, extreme heat exposure, wind conditions or the physical environment around the project?

And the generating asset is only part of the equation.

Renewable energy development also depends on transmission infrastructure, roads, ports, substations, equipment and other supporting systems. A project can be designed around an excellent resource and still be exposed through the infrastructure that allows it to be built, connected and operated.

The IEA has identified climate exposure across the wider energy value chain, while its 2025 work on integrating solar and wind points to the growing importance of grids, storage and system planning as variable renewable energy expands in Southeast Asia.

What could change?

Climate data can influence where a project is built, how it is engineered, what equipment it needs, how long it takes to construct and what it ultimately costs. It can also affect the infrastructure the project depends on, along with financing assumptions and risk transfer.

That raises a more uncomfortable question:

Are we designing projects for the climate we have measured, or the climate they will operate in?

A project can have an attractive resource profile and still carry assumptions that become harder to defend as conditions change.

The Department of Energy’s requirement for energy storage in certain new variable renewable energy projects points to the same principle. Adding generation capacity is not enough. The system around it has to keep pace.

A renewable energy project is not a static asset. Its risk profile can change as the conditions around it change.

That means climate exposure cannot be a one time assessment at the start of development. It needs to be monitored, tested and reviewed throughout the project lifecycle.

The projects that will stand the test of time may be the ones designed to change with it.