An Inflection Point in the US Casualty Reserving Cycle – Highlights Potential End to Material Adverse Development in Casualty Lines for Calendar Year 2025

In this report on the US Casualty reserving cycle, we explore how material adverse development from prior years is likely to abate for calendar year 2025. After extensive reserve strengthening over the past five years, evidence suggests that (re)insurers will largely be through the adverse development from the soft market block of Accident Years (AYs) 2014-2019 in the Other Liability lines. While there is more uncertainty in recent years, our perspective is that the 2020-2023 AY hard market block is more likely to develop favorably than unfavorably in these lines based on a number of factors.

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