Bushfire risk has long been considered an Australian problem - but that assumption no longer holds. New Zealand experiences 4,000-5,000 vegetation fires annually, and climate change is reshaping the risk landscape. Longer fire seasons, hotter temperatures, and drier conditions mean wildfire is no longer a rare event.
Historically, bushfire risk in New Zealand has been overshadowed by earthquakes and floods. But recent events, such as the Tongariro National Park fire, highlight that the country is far from immune. Exotic forests, drought-prone regions like Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, Marlborough, and Central Otago, and human-caused ignitions all contribute to a growing threat.
What’s Driving the Change?
Since 1950, the frequency of extreme fire weather days has increased, and the fire season has lengthened. Projections show that by the 2040s and 2090s, many regions will face significantly more days of very high or extreme fire danger. Some areas could even experience conditions similar to Australia’s catastrophic “Black Summer.”
Risk Management and Insurance Gaps
Despite this trend, wildfire risk management in New Zealand remains limited. Most businesses focus narrowly on preventing ignition on their premises, with little consideration for broader exposure. Unlike Australia, New Zealand has no construction standards for fire-prone areas, and vegetation management often prioritises aesthetics over fire safety.
Insurance coverage is widely available today, but sectors like forestry and energy already face challenges. A major loss event could rapidly reshape market dynamics - driving premium hikes and stricter underwriting. Businesses that fail to demonstrate proactive risk management may find themselves at a disadvantage.
Lessons From Australia
Australia’s experience offers valuable insights. Strategies such as vegetation management, technology-driven asset monitoring, and proactive engagement with insurers have helped mitigate controllable risks. These measures are becoming baseline expectations - not differentiators.
The Bottom Line
Wildfire in New Zealand is no longer a distant possibility. Businesses must act now - by proving risk management discipline and preparing for a future where insurability could hinge on proactive measures.
Download the full report to understand what’s coming - and how to prepare before the market shifts.
The contents of this publication are provided for general information only. Lockton arranges the insurance and is not the insurer. While the content contributors have taken reasonable care in compiling the information presented, we do not warrant that the information is correct. It is not intended to be interpreted as advice on which you should rely and may not necessarily be suitable for you. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content in this publication.
