As the operating environment for shipping becomes more complex, insurance is taking on greater strategic importance. Market conditions, geopolitical developments, and the pace of decarbonisation are all influencing the protection available to shipowners and operators.
Below, we outline several themes that are set to be particularly relevant in 2026:
1. Soft market makes ‘buying smarter’ crucial
Overcapacity continues to affect core marine lines, negatively impacting insurer profitability; most major markets have reported several years of rate softening or stagnation, despite persistent claims inflation. As a result, many insurers are now looking to broaden their product sets in search of more balanced portfolios. For some, this entails expanding into adjacent risks with different profile, while others are developing portfolios of so-called ‘special’ risks that fall outside the scope of core products, including elements of value-chain exposures, revenue protection, political risks, and contract frustration, among others.
Insurance buyers should welcome these trends, but should not take it as a sign to buy cheaper. Rather, amid the softening market, smart buyers will redeploy their premium savings to purchase broader, better coverage. Over time, this advantages of this strategy will far outweigh the benefit to be had by simply pocketing the savings made across core products. And when the market inevitably hardens again, any coverage improvements could well prove to be ‘sticky’.
2. Greater reliance on War Risk alternatives
Geopolitical tension has become a structural feature of global trade, with persistent instability across several key flashpoints. Since the US–Israel joint attack on Iran on 28 February, regional supply chains have faced heightened disruption, with elevated sanctions exposure, state interference, and logistics bottlenecks concentrated around the Strait of Hormuz – a transit point for a fifth of global oil flows (opens a new window). Meanwhile, military drills, rerouting, and sanctions risks have already driven up freight and insurance costs in the Taiwan Strait – home to nearly 90% of the world’s largest ships by tonnage (opens a new window). Further escalation is likely to create difficult aggregation scenarios for war, cargo, and business interruption covers.
This the case, buyer demand is stronger than ever for predictable, cost-efficient war coverage. Currently, this demand is primarily met through War Risk Insurance. But Marine Cargo insurance insurers typically reserve the right to cancel War Risk coverage at 7 days’ prior notice, such as when a political situation escalates. Losses arising from war and conflict between the five major powers (UK, US, France, Russia, and China) are also excluded. As a result, unsuspecting buyers could find themselves without cover precisely when it is most needed, with few guarantees around subsequent pricing.
But alternatives are available, albeit awareness remains low. Contingent War Risk Insurance is designed to step in where primary insurance fails to provide indemnity, and can provide a crucial fail-safe for buyers operating in high-risk environments. As war, and threats of war escalate, expect take-up to increase in the year ahead.
3. More clarity around green tech
The rapid expansion of alternative‑fuel vessels and energy‑saving retrofits is reshaping the technical risk landscape. In 2024, 50% of new builds ordered were alternative fuel-capable (opens a new window), with owners increasingly looking to insulate themselves against regulations designed to reduce carbon emissions.
Despite the relative nascence of green technology within the sector, marine insurers are showing willingness to help de-risk these investments – often without charging an additional premium. However, the operational behaviour of new fuels and technologies remains uncertain, and early‑stage claims experience is still thin. In the long term, the future of premiums and coverage terms will depend on how green technologies perform in practice; if results are poor, then the availability and cost of insurance could suffer. This balance between supporting investment and managing untested risk will be a defining theme of 2026.
4. Shift to bespoke supply chain solutions
Large‑scale supply‑chain disruptions remain a key challenge in 2025, with implications for planning, chartering, and revenue stability. However, many shipowners and charterers remain uninsured against the potential financial consequences.
Crucially, this is not for a want of solutions. Although insurers have developed delay, trade‑disruption, and parametric products, uptake has been limited due to concerns about complexity, perceived value, and a general lack of awareness around product availability.
In the future, a move towards increasingly bespoke offerings is likely to ensure the consequences of supply chain interruptions are more effectively covered.
5. Cyber gap widens as exposures increase
Last year saw the first marine sector loss arising from a cyber-attack (opens a new window), with the grounding of the MSC Antonia near the Eliza Shoals off Jeddah. Analysis by maritime intelligence firms indicated that the vessel’s navigational systems were likely compromised by GPS jamming, leading to incorrect positioning data.
The incident, while unfortunate, offered a timely reminder of the growing disconnect between the sector’s existing risk transfer arrangements and its cyber exposure. Physical damage arising from a cyber-attack is currently excluded from War Risk or Hull Insurance policies, on the basis that a single event could lead to multiple losses. And while alternatives are available – in the form of buyback or affirmative loss solutions – uptake among buyers remains in its infancy. Similarly, despite strong demand for Cyber Business Interruption insurance, current limits do not cover the likely scale of loss affecting a ship, port, or terminal.
This is concerning. As the fate of the MSC Antonia proves, cyber attackers are now targeting individual vessels. Questions arise as to whether the market could do more to create viable coverage, with potential pooling to protect against aggregate losses.
For more information on any of these topics, or to discuss your insurance cover, reach out to a member of our team.
